Election day Nor'easter

[Steve/sewell]

On Tuesday night Election Night a large storm is expected to be off the North Carolina coast heading towards the DElMarVa coast and strengthening into a 981 low pressure system. All of the ingredients are coming together for a large Snow Wind and rain storm from the mountains of Northern Virginia and Northern Eastern West Virgina right up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains to Maine.The higher peaks in all of these areas can expect a solid 8 to 12 inches with higher isolated amounts in the higher peaks of up to 2 feet.Heavy wind 40 to 60 mph and rain on the warm side of the storm can be expected with two to three inches of rain expected along the coast from Virginia to Massachusetts.A change over to snow is likely to the coast from New Jersey to Massachusetts as the storm goes by your area and colder air wraps in from the north west. A Shift in the track of 50 miles either way in or out can shift the snow area accordingly towards the coast or further inland at and west of the mountains.

This time around very cold air from Canada will be racing south towards the eastern United States. At the same time a storm will be gathering off the coast of South Carolina which at this time the National weather services says the storm will be pushed out to sea by the coming cold front at the jet stream levels. This is where I differ from their assessment of the likelihood of a major storm coming up the coast.The NAO blocking creates a negatively tilted trough over the eastern United States which forces storms due North and then turns them in slightly west just like it did with Hurricane Sandy.
With out the NAO blocking the storm would head north east but be well off the coast as the upper air flow of a negative or neutral NAO would would allow the storm to escape into the Atlantic as they thought Sandy would also.

The time frame of this storm is from Tues night in the North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland area off the coast of New Jersey Wednesday Evening and Thursday it should be near Massachusetts.The area that will have great concern to me is from New Jersey to Massachusetts as again a high tide and coastal vulnerability will all play key roles in bringing in the strong possibility of devastating flooding to areas already hit hard by Sandy as a two to three foot tidal surge will be able to progress much further west then normal because a lot of the Barrier Island protection dunes are gone from Sandy. Again scattered power outages through out the region more concentrated this time in the snow element of the storm will undoubtedly occur.

I hope the warning from the National National weather service is forth coming soon as with each model run I am looking at since late last evening the likely hood of a storm is now at 50 percent where yesterday at 5:00 pm it was only a 30 percent chance.The positive NAO ( North Atlantic Oscillation ) which is high pressure blocking off the coast of Greenland will be very strong at the time of the storm development. This same high pressure system was responsible for keeping Sandy from turning out to sea. Most of the National weather service had that storm turning right towards Bermuda but any good weather forecaster could see the blocking up stream that was going to enable Sandy to hug the coast and turn left at the end.

Part of the problem with the National weather forecast system is they only rely on their own data stubbornly and refuse to look at all of the other major weather services in the world to help form a better consensus.They are not always wrong by any stretch but it seems they always lag behind the other major outlets when a large weather event is about to occur.The software program I use although amateurish in comparison takes into account your own thoughts and theory's coupled with input from other major weather sources around the globe. I use,the JMA ( The Japan Meteorological Agency),The European,The Russian,and in the States here Weatherbell.com who was the only weather service along with the JMA that forecasted the track and the damage potential from Hurricane Sandy correctly from the get go.

I am not afraid to go out on a limb and would like to be proved wrong on this one but I am sounding the alarm here NOW for all of you to at least have this on your back burner of thoughts and we will see when the National weather service reacts accordingly.The NAO is expected to go neutral towards the 10th of November for a two week period which will protect the mid Atlantic and Northeast but look out around Thanksgiving for another large Nor'easter in the same area as the NAO goes very strongly positive again for a two week period. Things to think about if you live in the effected areas next week are filling up your gas tanks in you cars this weekend,and if you have wood burning capability have it ready as a fail safe.The difference from sandy this time will be how cold it is going to get during and after the storm.

Time to go to work have a good day everyone.

 

[DIGS CHESCO]

The local Philly weather reports are down playing the upcoming storm, but it looks like trouble. Thanks for posting.

Tom

 

[surfaceone]

God, Steve, I hope the computer models get some Divine interference on this one.

A Nor'easter on top of this Hurricane is almost too much to contemplate.

 

[Steve/sewell]

I hope the work crews and power companies are working diligently as latest on this storm has strength increasing tremendously with 40 to 50 mph winds for a 6 to 8 hour duration coming in off the Atlantic Wed night along the entire coast of New Jersey. The snow and line of demarcation to the change to rain remains where I had it drawn yesterday. This event will not last any where near as long as Sandy did but do not let your guard down on this one either as it will bring sad reminders to all of us in this area as to how helpless we felt a week before. If you can get to your home in the damaged area now would be the time to get any or all of your belongings salvageable out of there as flooding seems quite likely in the shore towns again. Power outages can be expected again in all the states particularly the snow portion of the storm. After this storm goes by and pulls up to Nova Scotia a change to much colder weather 10 to 15 degrees below normal for the month of November relatively speaking is on order for a 5 to 7 day period in the Mid Atlantic and North East. A hard freeze will envelope the entire area Friday evening as lows expected into the mid to upper twenty's all the way to the coast and teens in the Piedmont and mountainous areas. A major snow storm in the same area is forecast near Thanksgiving as the NAO goes quite positive for a two week period into early December.

 

[Steve/sewell]

Accuweather.com is now on board with the storm coming,yet the National Weather services waits...Christ almighty WHY....Why? The risk of the storm coming far out weighs any measures or precautions that may be taken if the storm misses the area completely. It is not crying wolf to warn early given the recent events, even if in their lead forecasters minds the storm track will not affect the United States all other worldly weather outlets are seeing this storm coming. They got it wrong last week and are DOING THE EXACT SAME THING AGAIN.!!! This is gonna be real bad along the Jersey shore area of my state. I hope people heed the warning and can get to their homes and salvage anything they can this weekend. The national weather service should be posting warnings NOW not waiting until Monday. This storm is imminent and will be life threatening again. Major snow is going to fall from the Poconos,Catskills,Adirondacks, Green and white mountains up to and in Maine. Winds and gales will exceed 50 to 60 mph in some cases. AND THERE WILL BE A TIDAL SURGE AGAIN!!!! NOW EXPECTED AT 3 TO 4 FEET along the entire coast with no sea wall or protective dunes in place it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the potential to do more incredible significant property damage and KILL more of our citizens ......God help us in New Jersey and New York as we are really being tested and pushed to our limits. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/coastal-flooding-a-major-conce/1044406 I am feeling sick about this as I know what is coming and it is meteorologicly unfathomable to comprehend and its going to catch a lot of people off guard !!!! Sorry to bring this bad news again to all of you. I will provide updates later in the day. Our Governments Weather agency NOAA ( National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ) uses a forecast system that is called the GFS ( Global Forecast System ) who ever makes the calla at this agency should have been fired last week and should be fired again after next week.

 

[Steve/sewell]

Just a reminder to those who may have forgot.......... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/coastal-flooding-a-major-conce/1044406 I hope everyone that lives at the Jersey Shore and Staten Island were able to get out their belongings from their homes that were salvageable. Major flooding is coming again tomorrow night and heavy snow not to far inland from the coast of New Jersey up to Massachusetts. This is going to catch a lot of people by surprise. This time the power outages will be more concentrated in the heavy snow area. If you live anywhere near the path of this storm and have a wood stove or fireplace make sure you have dry wood inside as this could lead to more lengthy power outages. The storm right now is leaving Missouri and Arkansas and heading east south east. A piece of energy at the jet stream level will tilt the trough over the eastern United States negatively just like Sandy preventing the storm from escaping to the ocean. The storm will bomb out on the coast of South Carolina tomorrow morning and ride northward.Winds will be in the 40 to 60 mph range and with a large area of onshore flow ahead of the center of circulation massive flooding is coming back to parts of the country that don't need it. One last mention,I just want to point out how non proactive the national weather service NOOA is with this upcoming monster of a storm. Here is the latest weather predicted for Monmouth County one hit very hard by the last storm http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone3 They still seem more fit to warn you about the hazards left over from the last storm and not a mention of the impending disaster coming back to the shore TOMORROW NIGHT. They are more concerned with all of us drinking contaminated water,and not grilling indoors so you don't die from carbon monoxide poisoning.Clueless absolutely clueless!!!

 

[Plumbata]

Wow, thanks for the warning but thankfully it won't affect me all too much.

This storm will just add, uhh, injury to injury. Hope everyone fares well.

 

[cowseatmaize]

I'm glad that for the most part the were a bit premature. Today looks likely though. I hope the hard hit areas don't get slammed. That's the last thing you need now.

 

[surfaceone]

Welcome to President Obama's Katrina.