Steve/sewell
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2010
- Messages
- 6,108
- Reaction score
- 5
- Points
- 0
One last hurrah for me for a little while any way,I know it is still officially Spring and Summer is knocking on the door,but I just had to tell all of you this,.....some of you will be happy others will come looking for me if it pans out the way I believe it will. alrighty then here goes.
A winter lovers dream is going to unfold and this one will go down in the record books before all is said and done.
I hope all of you enjoy a nice LONG cold winter from time to time because get ready this one really is going to break records over most of the country. The climate program I use to predict the weather has been stating now for the past two straught months this is going to happen even trending colder through the period. When you look at the map to the left this was the winter of 1976-77, with the actual temperatures average to normal in any given winter between the years 1950 to 1995. This years prediction is calling for an even more extreme winter when compared to those same years.The core of the cold will be centered over the great lakes with temperaturtes averaging 8 to 10 degress below normal.An area surounding it on all sides will have temperatures 9 to 7 degress below normal.The rest of the blues and greens represent an average anywhere from 6 to 2 degrees below normal which is a very sizeable portion of the country.A moderate El-nino coupled with a very negative AO (Atlantic Osilation ) add a Greenland high pressure block for most of the winter and all the neccesary ingredients will come together just like it did this past winter in Europe.Snowfall will be heavy early in the season in the Great Lake snow belt areas but will end once the great lakes freeze over in mid January to early February.Snow will fall much more often and on more occasions in areas it usually doesnt.
During a stretch of time from the end of December through the middle of January in the core of the cold area, temperatures may not rise above freezing for a three to four week period. Places like Minnesota,Iowa, The Upper Peninsula of Michigan Northern Indiana,Northern Ohio will see overnight low temperatures below zero on 5 to 7 days with with single digit lows on 20 days or more. Most of New York state except New York City and Long Island,West Virginia,most of Pennsylvania except the extreme South eastern part,all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine,Western Mass and Conn will all see below zero temperatures on 4 or more occaisions with single digit lows on 14 days or more. Northern New Jersey will see 3 days below zero with 6 to 12 days of single digit lows while the southern part of the stateand South Eastern Pennsylvania,Delaware,Northern and western Maryland,Northern and western Virgina will have at least 2 day below zero and 5 to 10 single digit days.Kentucky and Northern Tennesse will have similar temperatures to New Jersey while the mountains in Tennesee Virginia, North Carolina,South Carolina and Georgia will be feeling just like it does in a typical New England winter.
Here is the kicker for you to chew on. When compared to the years 1996 to 2011 the core of the cold area predicted for this winter is 11 to 13 degrees colder then normal because of an average warming of two degrees over the last 15 years. This will come as an out and out shock to you younger folks who have yet to experience a winter of this magnitude. The bottom line is a winter you will never forget is coming this year the kind you will only see once in a lifetime and you will talk about in your golden years to your grandkids. As a teenager growing up in western Southern New Jersey in 1976-77 I remember the Delaware river freezing over so solidly the ice breakers could not keep the channel open and people were walking across the river to the marsh in front of Philadelphia International Airport. One man even drove his car across the river. Pipes freezing, and cars not starting were a common occurence. It was an average winter with regards to snowfall the difference being it never melted from the first snowfall in early December right through to the middle of April a glacier was forming.I remember the plowed snow piles were still in place at the Deptford Mall Parking lot on Memorial day weekend.They finally melted that week as temperatures soared to the 90s. This is not hype and you will see the national media sources jumping on top of this real soon over the next few months.
Weatherbell.com is in my camp completely and Accuweather.com is already hinting but their take on the winter is just moderatley colder and above normal snowfall.
A winter lovers dream is going to unfold and this one will go down in the record books before all is said and done.
I hope all of you enjoy a nice LONG cold winter from time to time because get ready this one really is going to break records over most of the country. The climate program I use to predict the weather has been stating now for the past two straught months this is going to happen even trending colder through the period. When you look at the map to the left this was the winter of 1976-77, with the actual temperatures average to normal in any given winter between the years 1950 to 1995. This years prediction is calling for an even more extreme winter when compared to those same years.The core of the cold will be centered over the great lakes with temperaturtes averaging 8 to 10 degress below normal.An area surounding it on all sides will have temperatures 9 to 7 degress below normal.The rest of the blues and greens represent an average anywhere from 6 to 2 degrees below normal which is a very sizeable portion of the country.A moderate El-nino coupled with a very negative AO (Atlantic Osilation ) add a Greenland high pressure block for most of the winter and all the neccesary ingredients will come together just like it did this past winter in Europe.Snowfall will be heavy early in the season in the Great Lake snow belt areas but will end once the great lakes freeze over in mid January to early February.Snow will fall much more often and on more occasions in areas it usually doesnt.
During a stretch of time from the end of December through the middle of January in the core of the cold area, temperatures may not rise above freezing for a three to four week period. Places like Minnesota,Iowa, The Upper Peninsula of Michigan Northern Indiana,Northern Ohio will see overnight low temperatures below zero on 5 to 7 days with with single digit lows on 20 days or more. Most of New York state except New York City and Long Island,West Virginia,most of Pennsylvania except the extreme South eastern part,all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine,Western Mass and Conn will all see below zero temperatures on 4 or more occaisions with single digit lows on 14 days or more. Northern New Jersey will see 3 days below zero with 6 to 12 days of single digit lows while the southern part of the stateand South Eastern Pennsylvania,Delaware,Northern and western Maryland,Northern and western Virgina will have at least 2 day below zero and 5 to 10 single digit days.Kentucky and Northern Tennesse will have similar temperatures to New Jersey while the mountains in Tennesee Virginia, North Carolina,South Carolina and Georgia will be feeling just like it does in a typical New England winter.
Here is the kicker for you to chew on. When compared to the years 1996 to 2011 the core of the cold area predicted for this winter is 11 to 13 degrees colder then normal because of an average warming of two degrees over the last 15 years. This will come as an out and out shock to you younger folks who have yet to experience a winter of this magnitude. The bottom line is a winter you will never forget is coming this year the kind you will only see once in a lifetime and you will talk about in your golden years to your grandkids. As a teenager growing up in western Southern New Jersey in 1976-77 I remember the Delaware river freezing over so solidly the ice breakers could not keep the channel open and people were walking across the river to the marsh in front of Philadelphia International Airport. One man even drove his car across the river. Pipes freezing, and cars not starting were a common occurence. It was an average winter with regards to snowfall the difference being it never melted from the first snowfall in early December right through to the middle of April a glacier was forming.I remember the plowed snow piles were still in place at the Deptford Mall Parking lot on Memorial day weekend.They finally melted that week as temperatures soared to the 90s. This is not hype and you will see the national media sources jumping on top of this real soon over the next few months.
Weatherbell.com is in my camp completely and Accuweather.com is already hinting but their take on the winter is just moderatley colder and above normal snowfall.
]
