God is about to send us a reminder as to who is really in control.

[epackage]

I've been watching Steve and keeping track of your posts....[]

 

[andy volkerts]

[]Dang miserable winters, heat like ya cant believe, high humidity, earthquakes, and now another hurricane. Damn I am Prayin for all of ya, you all need to catch a break real soon...........Andy

 

[RonJonbold]

A hurricane is definitely nothing to take lightly! I grew up in Texas and went to college in Florida so we had to worry about it. I still remember being six years old in Houston when a hurricane came through. It had lost a lot of its force by then -- Galveston got hit bad but Houston is further inland -- but I still remember the trees bent nearly double in the wind and the floodwater running down the streets. There were cottonmouth snakes swimming down the streets of Houston residential areas, I'm not kidding.

 

[Steve/sewell]

Here is the headline from the Hurricane center.DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS HARD... Two things I would like to point out,first the strength. This is a very dangerous storm right now,it will become wicked catastropheic.
The central pressure is down to 954 Mbs converted is 28.17 inches.Katrina had sustained winds during landfall of 125 mph (110 kts) (a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and minimum central pressure the third lowest on record at landfall (920 mb).
The second thing I would like to point out is the hurricanes position.The current cordinates of LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST are further west and south then yesterdays prediction
This is the latest update at 5:00PM

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

 

[surfaceone]

Hey Steve,

Thanks for this. I'm tapping in...

 

[Steve/sewell]

The latest path is being more fine tuned and set in stone and and now it looks like the green area I had said the hurricane would follow on the map I had made up on tuesday evening in this post looks like the one unfortunatley even for myself in New Jersey that is gonna take place.If you live in Eastern South Carolina you will be affected in some form by the storm.Unfortunatley residents on or near the outerbanks of North Carolina are going to lose their homes and in some cases their property too as when this storm plows in it will be a category 4 with winds near 145 mph.Remember Katrina was a Category 3 and look what it did.Residents of Eastern Virgina the hurricane will have weakened to a Category 3 if you can call a cat 3 hurricane weak and it will also remove homes and destroy some the beaches. Residents of Eastern Maryland and the rest of the DelMarva Peninsula get ready for some serious flooding the likes you have never seen in your lifetimes. The reason for this is you are surrounded by water on all sides except your North.Prepare now if your home is located near any of the major bodys of water in this area.There WILL be a lot of flooding.My state New Jersey wow Category 2 coming right over top of the barrier Islands.These towns as some of you know are more populated then ever.If this happens as it now seems more likely with each passing hour God help you.If you are down the Jersey shore now or briefly tommorrow or early Saturday take pictures of the beach and surrounding boardwalks and homes as some may not be there on Monday.Get out Snooky and the gang, yes even you guys have to leave the beach. Long Island look out for the same reason as the Delmarva to much water on all sides.New England Rhode Island in particular its gonna do a lot of damage here also.I am not trying to scare anyone but if you could see the various charts I am looking at this morning its frightning to say the least.Rain is going to cause a lot of flooding,the threat of tornadoes at any moment being spun up is also inevitable.I am scared for my own property 45 miles in from the coast but I cant imagine living near the shore at this time.Ill update this evening after 5:00 PM.Here is my map from Tuesday evening posted here earlier.

 

[Steve/sewell]

Here is the latest from the hurricane center.

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM
NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

 

[Steve/sewell]

The headline story in Accuweather this morning. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54098/hurricane-irene-to-slam-into-t.asp

 

[Steve/sewell]

950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

these are the numbers that tell the whole story.Unlike in baseball the lower the numbers the stronger.If this number comes close to 920 MB 27.90 glass is blown out of buildings because of the pressure change in the atmosphere alone.It also says the hurricane eye is shrinking and tightning like a figure skater does when she begins twirling.We will be talking about this storm here next week and years after.

 

[Steve/sewell]

Off to work and then the Ark supply store[]