RARITY vs DEMAND vs AGE vs CONDITION = VALUE

[blobbottlebob]

Sodapop. I am not tryig to be rude here. But as others have noted, many of us do not collect acls at all. If I found that bottle, I would either leave it, or give it away with little concern that I had lost something of value. In fact, if it made someone happy to get it, I would be ecstatic to hand it to them. Sorry.

On the other hand, if I found a bottle with unusual graphics, like an interesting picture, I might keep it to see if it had value to others . . .

 

[SODAPOPBOB]

To all concerned ...

This is a wide-open thread and all opinions and observations are welcomed. I'm just curious as to what makes certain collectors tick and how they feel personally about values, etc. Please note, there is no need to apologize for an expressed opinion. This is your oportunity to "tell it like it is" or at least "say it how you see it." I'm hopeful we can all learn something from it and not just newbies who find ketchup bottles they hope are worth a jillion bucks which, unfortunately, are not!

Here's an exception to the rule that apparently is worth close to a jillion bucks ... WOW! $11,300.00

http://www.ebay.com/itm/WOW-Cobalt-Blue-Torpedo-Codd-Soda-Bottle-DAN-RYLANDS-BARNSLEY-/190733783289?_trksid=p2047675.l2557&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&nma=true&si=S6F4JXzTRz%2FmCeF7Jxj%2BaJvZMHM%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc

Thanks again,

Bob

 

[epackage]

My thoughts on this are the same as the first acl, if I'm not selling it I wouldn't want it at $5...

 

[SODAPOPBOB]

ORIGINAL: epackage

My thoughts on this are the same as the first acl, if I'm not selling it I wouldn't want it at $5...

Exactomundo! I agree! If I were not able to resell it, I wouldn't like it all that much either. In fact, prior to knowing what it's worth now, if I were to have seen one just like it in the past for a "Buy It Now" price of $5.00, I'm sure would have just scrolled right on past it.

Bob

 

[blobbottlebob]

61 bids on that Codd. Must have really been that good.

 

[toms sc]

This is very interesting.because i only collect south carolina acl bottles.if i buy a embossed bottle its for resale only to support my buying of acl,s,and i don,t want to pay more than 5.00 no matter what its worth.love this topic.Happy hunting

 

[OsiaBoyce]

Try this formula........................

2
V = C + R = D
D = / > [ L & S ] = R
R = ? + D = V

Value is equal to the condition and rarity which lends to demand.
Demand is equal or greater through location and subject which lends to its rarity.
Condition is squared owing it is of most importance.
Rarity is an unknown factor along w/ demand again equals value


I would put that Squirt lable @ <5 due to the stains w/ a value as much.

 

[fanboy]

Just to throw a little more food for thought...

wrt: "what makes one bottle more valuable than another? "

The short answer is 2 more more people want it. Which does lead towards demand; however this is not as simple as it seems. There are bottles that have say 50 unique bidders but sells for $15, while 2 bidders may drive a bottle to $500.

So, you need to classify your demand to make sense of it. Something like:

1. The emotional buyer that gets wrapped up in must buy/win. These are also people I tend to think of as having more money than brains. This may also be a value speculator.

2. The educated buyer that knows the frequency at which the item appears and knows the historical significance it has to the most narrowest area of study.

3. The generalist that has some knowledge about the item or type of item that find the item desirable.

4. The "Kinda Cool" buyer that will buy something in passing because they find it kind of cool.

So using the Squirt bottle they buyers may be:

1. This bidder had $500 in their pocket and will spend it to prevent someone else winning it/buying it

2. Knows that the small town only had 1,200 people and 1939 was the 2nd year of production there for only about 200 bottles were manufactured. The bottle shows up every 10 years. They might be prepared to pay up to $250

3. Knows it is a small town and its an early Squirt example and would spend $50

4. Never seen Squirt and likes the splash logo, or maybe has a connection to the town on the bottle and would spend $5

So the value of the bottle depends on the combination of demand types. The lowest number in my list will trump the following numbers (1 trumps 2 Trumps 3 trumps 4).

The true value lies with the 2nd ranked demand; since that will be the cut off point.

So back to the squirt example...

If there is a #1 and #2 interested, the value would be $250

If there is a #1 and #1 interested the value would be $500 (Possible but very rare case)

If there is a #2 and #2 interested the value would be $250

If there is a #2 and #3 interested the value would be $50

etc.

This is my opinion of value. There is also the case of ignoring demand and targeting a single #1 or #2 demand.

So lets say there is a #2 and a #3; the bottle could be priced at $250 to drop the #3 out of the picture and the #2 buys it. In my opinion the value is still $50 because that is what the general market will bear, with the #2 out of the picture the #3 would be the top demand.

Complicated, but comes down to you need to know your market and demand. It all comes down to experience.

Just to share another thought on price guides; if collectors and dealers treated price guides as gospel, then prices would never change. In reality experienced collectors and researchers (sometimes speculators) pay more because they know the significance of the piece and the price could be from 10 years ago, when the last one sold. Knowing the market also tells you when a new hoard of something is found and drops the price of an item.

Any way back to work...

Chris

 

[SODAPOPBOB]

fanboy / Chris ~

I know it took more than a few minutes to type out your post and appreciate the time and dedication it involved. I consider it a brilliant observation from a true expert. Thanks also for your evaluation of the Squirt bottle. My personal evaluation of that particular bottle including supply / condition / etc. is $30 + $10 shipping = $40. The seller is asking $75 total. I have already decided to pass on it with the hope of eventually finding one in better condition for less money. My "demand" factor at present is low. Thus, no sale!

I believe the following two forum links will be of interest here in that they dig a little deeper into this topic and illustrate what some members had to say in the past regarding ...

MOUNTAIN DEW PARTY JUG THREAD

https://www.antique-bottles.net/forum/m-380515/mpage-1/key-mountain%252Cdew%252Cparty%252Cjug/tm.htm#380875

HOLY GRAIL THREAD

https://www.antique-bottles.net/forum/m-344637/mpage-1/key-mountain%252Cdew%252Cparty%252Cjug/tm.htm#345097

 

[SODAPOPBOB]

PS ~

I am temporarily eliminating the word rare from my equation and replacing it with ...

Supply and Demand!

Which I realize may seem trivial, but still slightly more accurate. Meaning, there may in fact be tons of a particular bottle but that collectors are hoarding (holding onto) them, thus the supply is limited.

Bob