Oh boy,Look out for the weekend..A Snowcane is coming

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Steve/sewell

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Yeah Chuck I hope I am wrong as this could have an enormous impact on our lives.The definition of a Category 3 hurricane is as follows.

Winds around the eye wall at 115 to 130 mph.
Sustained winds 50 to 75 mph around a broad area. A central pressure of 945–964 mbar 7.91–28.47 Barometric Pressure would normally be seen in a category 3 hurricane but in the case of Sandy even though she is now predicted at Category 3 strength her lowest pressure may be at Category 5 strength in a very small area near the inner eye wall bands. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet that would put Manhattan under 3 feet of water in a few minutes would seem surreal to those caught off guard.This would bring New York City to a standstill as power would be lost for weeks if that occurred.

Devastating damage IS going to occur.Tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher are described as major hurricanes in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins. These storms can cause structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, particularly those of wood frame or manufactured materials with minor curtainwall failures. Buildings that lack a solid foundation, such as mobile homes, are usually destroyed, and gable-end roofs are peeled off. Manufactured homes usually sustain severe and irreparable damage. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures, while larger structures are struck by floating debris. A large number of trees are uprooted or snapped, isolating many areas. Additionally, terrain may be flooded well inland. Near-total to total power loss is likely for up to several weeks and water will likely also be lost. Mix in a powerful Nor'easter to its left flank and you have the recipe for disaster.Boy if we ever needed a push of cold air from Canada now would be the time. As a weather connoisseur part of me is excited by this, but as you age in life you realize just how destructive an event like this can be. Personally I am frightened by the prospects at the loss of life and property that will unfold in just a couple of days. God help the good people of the North East and the Mid Atlantic because his power will be needed soon enough to get us through this. Please stay safe everyone and move those wonderful bottles and glass you like to show off in your windows to a safe place in your homes for a week. You will be glad you did.
 

Steve/sewell

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My wife just emailed this to me she is the Vice President at a local college and just received this email personally from the National Weather service. The safety department at Her college is already closing the college with her permission for the time period Monday next week.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf This is serious when NOAA gets on board (and they are always the last to do so ) you can bet the storm is imminent.
 

epackage

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Steve are you expecting it to be a CAT 3 when it reaches us?
 

Steve/sewell

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Jim and to the rest of you the answer to Jims question

If the center of the storm is 150 miles off the coast of Virginia then yes it could very well in those warm waters build to Category 3 strength for a short time just before land fall. The software I use to predict the possible scenarios has 10 possible tracks you look at based on a 10 day out period.
On day 1 back on the 16th there were 10 distinct tracks with 3 turning in towards the United States, 4 turning right before Bermuda and and 3 turning right after Bermuda.

Just 2 days later on the 18th the following was recorded, 4 turning into the United States coast from North Carolina to Mass, and 4 turning out to see after Bermuda and 2 turning out to sea before Bermuda.

3 days later on the 21st the totals were as follows 5 turning into the United States coast but still spread out from each other again from North Carolina to Mass 3 turning right after Bermuda and 2 turning right before Bermuda.

On Tuesday morning the day of this post a honing in on the possible tracks was starting to solidify itself. 7 tracks were now turning the storm into the United States coast and 3 of them were virtually on top of each other with 2 tracks on each side of the 3 together with the center of them being between the Delaware Bay and western Long Island. The 3 remaining storm tracks were all north of Bermuda before turning right into the Atlantic.

Yesterday at this time 8 possible tracks brought the storm to the Coast with 5 of them on top of each other at the Delaware Bay with 2 tracks north of that hitting New York City and 1 renegade track hitting the center of Long Island.

This evening 9 tracks have the storm turning left into the coast and hitting the area between the Delaware Bay and Central New Jersey. 5 of them are on top of each other on the east side of the Delaware bay running up through Cumberland County New Jersey to my county Gloucester,2 of tracks are on top of each other on the Western side of the Delaware bay just 10 miles to the west of the 5 tracks and the other 2 are almost on top of each other with the eye coming on shore near Barnegate in South Central New Jersey. 1 Renegade track has the storm running up to Eastern Long Island and then turning left into New York City.

This can all still change slightly with the track shifting 25 or more miles North or South. Based on the highest probability of first landfall the following area in Southern New Jersey is for now ground zero.

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane center in Florida http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203623.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

Now I used to like Jim Cantore of the Weather channel but he went a little nutso with global warming propoganda. However here are his tweets the last few hours..... Pretty freighting when Mr Storm Stories is joining in on the fray https://twitter.com/JimCantore




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Steve/sewell

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Hey Chuck Cyber, how do 30 to 35 foot waves coming over the protective barrier near the Stone Pony in Asbury Park sound... Maybe Springsteen will have to pen a new song when this one is over!! That is the prediction right now for the possibility of 35 foot tall waves coming on shore near your area from Northern Long Beach Island up to the Shark hills. That is as tall as the utility poles for Gods sake, if that happens the board walks in these communities are no more. Cape May to Southern Long Beach Island same thing, 30 to 35 foot tall waves at the time of the land fall of the eye wall anmd a 5 to 10 foot surge of the ocean across the barrier Islands....total devastation and Annihilation of the Board walks,homes,beaches everything. This is starting to sound like our version of Andrew and Katrina.
 

Plumbata

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Man, too bad i ain't out there to do some quality metal detecting and fossil scrounging. Bound to be some great stuff churned up or exposed by that storm.

Not a bad thing that i am safe and insulated from the brunt of the destruction though. Hope everyone fares well.

Splendid work Steve!
 

epackage

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The only good thing by me is the fact that we have had little rain and the river is really low right now, fingers are crossed...
 

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